Nearly 70% of housebuilders expect land values to remain stable in Q1 2024



Knight Frank’s Q4 2023 Land Index and Housebuilder Survey has revealed that there is a feeling of optimism among volume and SME housebuilders, with nearly 70% expecting land values to remain stable in Q1 2024.


Some 10% predict a slight increase, and only 5% expect a decline.

This marks a significant improvement in sentiment compared to the results of the previous survey, in which 50% of housebuilders anticipated a fall in land values. 

According to Knight Frank, the overall trajectory points to renewed activity in the UK’s land and housing sectors in 2024.

The firm can reveal that land values held steady in the final quarter of 2023 amid limited transactions, and that several positive factors are indicating deal flow picking up over the coming months.

Challenges have also been highlighted, revealing a third of housebuilders schemes have been impacted by nutrient neutrality rules.

More critically, planning delays have worsened, with 90% of respondents now considering this as their biggest issue, up substantially from 82% last quarter. 

While urban brownfield development faces high build costs and planning pressures, Knight Frank has said that housebuilder appetite remains especially robust for well-located greenfield sites, which are aimed predominantly at the upsizer market. 

Anna Ward, associate in the residential research team at Knight Frank, commented: “Early signs point to a much better year for land and development in 2024.

“Interest rates are levelling off and the pace of build cost growth has slowed substantially, so there are opportunities for forward-thinking developers to build now and sell in a few years into a market starved of stock.

“De-risking across large scale projects through block sales to investors and operators in build-to-rent, student and seniors housing will also be key.” 



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